In Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals, Boston’s opening play was lifted out of a lazy pick-up game. It started with Celtics point guard Marcus Smart dribbling past the halfcourt logo with Al Horford jogging past him toward the left block. On his way there, Horford brushed past Celtics forward Grant Williams, who sauntered up to the wing.
It’s technically acceptable to say Horford “set a pick” for Williams, but that doesn’t really describe what happened because the Bucks responded as if the game hadn’t even started. Neither Brook Lopez (on Williams) nor Giannis Antetokounmpo (on Horford) budged until Williams caught Smart’s pass behind the three-point line, squared his shoulders and released the ball, which went in. Over the next 47 minutes, Williams launched 17 more threes and made six, while Milwaukee opted not to adjust.
To some this might seem like a curious decision. Williams averaged 3.4 three-point attempts per game during the regular season. He also made 41.1% of them, which was second-best on the team. But whether he was standing in the strongside corner or had enough time above the break to check his shoe laces, test the wind and line up the ball’s seams, Milwaukee didn’t care. Those shots were fine so long as Lopez got to stand in the paint and deter close-range finishes from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
“It’s almost like a make-or-miss situation, or a gamble on their part to make you prove it from the outside,” Celtics coach Ime Udoka recently said. “And if you have an off shooting night it benefits them. If you have a hot shooting night you usually win.”
This has been the Bucks’ foundational strategy since Mike Budenholzer was hired. But with only 12.1% of Boston’s shots coming at the rim—their lowest rate of the season up until that point—that Game 7 also punctuated a larger trend seen throughout the last six NBA playoffs. As three-point rates rise, shots taken at the basket are in decline. The scale at which they’re tried has dropped in each of the last six postseasons and, at only 23.9% after Game 4 of these Finals, are lower than any point in at least 22 years. Put another way: During the 2017 playoffs, nearly a third of all shots came at the rim. Now, it’s less than a quarter. (There is also a decline during the regular season, but, at 28.9% this year, it’s much less pronounced.)
The numbers are the numbers, but there’s no simple way to explain shots at the rim are dropping in the playoffs, during an era when driving lanes have never been so wide, on floors that are increasingly populated by wings, guards and under-sized bigs who can put the ball on the deck and drive closeouts. Instead, a combination of factors tells the story—from aggressive defenses that prioritize rim protection to offenses that are willing to take what the defense gives as they drive and kick until the right shooter gets a quality shot.